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A tissue biomarker-based model that identifies patients with a high risk of distant metastasis and differential survival by length of androgen deprivation therapy in RTOG protocol 92-02.

Pollack, Alan; Dignam, James J; Diaz, Dayssy A; Wu, Qian; Stoyanova, Radka; Bae, Kyounghwa; Dicker, Adam P; Sandler, Howard; Hanks, Gerald E; Feng, Felix Y.
Clin Cancer Res; 20(24): 6379-88, 2014 Dec 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25294917


To examine the relationship between the expression of 7 promising apoptotic/cell proliferation proteins (Ki-67, p53, MDM2, bcl-2, bax, p16, and Cox-2) and risk of distant metastasis.


RTOG 92-02 compared external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) to approximately 70 Gy + short-term androgen deprivation therapy (STADT) with EBRT + long-term ADT (LTADT). Immunohistochemical analysis was available for ≥4 biomarkers in 616 of 1,521 assessable cases. Biomarkers were evaluated individually and jointly via multivariable modeling of distant metastasis using competing risks hazards regression, adjusting for age, prostate-specific antigen, Gleason score, T stage, and treatment.


Modeling identified four biomarkers (Ki-67, MDM2, p16 and Cox-2) that were jointly associated with distant metastasis. The c-index was 0.77 for the full model and 0.70 for the model without the biomarkers; a relative improvement of about 10% (likelihood ratio P < 0.001). Subdivision of the patients into quartiles based on predicted distant metastasis risk identified a high-risk group with 10-year distant metastasis risk of 52.5% after EBRT + STADT and 31% with EBRT + LTADT; associated 10-year prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) risks were 45.9% and 14.5% with STADT and LTADT.


Four biomarkers were found to contribute significantly to a model that predicted distant metastasis and identified a subgroup of patients at a particularly high risk of both distant metastasis and PCSM when EBRT + STADT was used. LTADT resulted in significant reductions in distant metastasis and improvements in PCSM, and there was a suggestion of greater importance in the very high risk subgroup.
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